The Housing Market “Bottom” Doesn’t Matter. Here’s What Does.

About this video

In this August 2026 video, Tom responds to reports from RBC and BMO suggesting the Canadian housing market had bottomed out, and explains why that headline matters less than what is happening in your own micro market. He gives buyers and sellers three simple numbers to track instead.

Key points

• Tom says you are not buying the Canadian housing market; your property type, area and price bracket are what matter. In this August 2026 video, he felt some Toronto freehold segments had bottomed and were slowly ticking up, while other segments were nowhere close.
• A market bottoming out is not a recovery. Tom noted that even RBC’s report said a full recovery could take another two and a half years, and prices could trade sideways for two or three years.
• Tom does not expect the Bank of Canada to fix the market. In August 2026, he thought rates would likely stay where they were for a while, with a better chance of going up than down.
• To judge your own market, track the average sale to list price ratio, average days on market for homes that sold, and the absorption rate over three to six months.
• Sellers should price correctly and make the home look great; buyers should build in downside risk and not feel pressured if the price does not make sense.

Questions answered in this video

Has the Toronto housing market bottomed out?

In this August 2026 video, Tom said he did not think the overall Toronto market had bottomed out, but certain segments had. Some freehold markets were starting to tick up slowly in price, while other segments would be the last to reach the bottom.

How can I tell which way prices are heading in my neighbourhood?

Tom suggests looking at three things for your property type and area: the average sale to list price ratio, the average days on market for properties that actually sold, and the absorption rate. For absorption, divide active listings at the end of the month by the number of sales, and look at several months in a row rather than just one.

Should buyers wait for the market to bottom before buying?

Tom says there will be no bell that rings when your specific market bottoms out. Instead, buyers should build in downside risk, aim for a price that makes sense for them, and walk away without pressure if it does not.

Related: Toronto real estate market updates | Buying a home in Toronto | Selling your home