Months of inventory measures how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current sales pace. Under 3 months favours sellers, 3 to 6 is balanced, and above 6 favours buyers.

Out of buyer's territory and holding. Inventory has dropped from 7.6 months in January to about 5, and July marks the second straight month below that line, keeping the market firmly in balanced territory.

The gold line marks today's average price. Trace it left and it first crosses the price history in October 2019, nearly seven years ago.

Which side of the line are you on? Anyone who bought at the 2022 peak is down roughly 20%. Anyone who bought before 2020 is still ahead. The average has held between $648K and $674K for six months, and July's $673K is just 1.7% below last July, the smallest annual decline in over a year.

Same price history, but painted by the inventory conditions at the time. You don't need to know a single statistic to read this one: green climbed, orange fell, gray held.

Every colour change happened because supply changed first. The line just turned gray for the first time in over a year. Historically, that's the zone where prices stop falling.

Both lines on one timeline. Follow the dashed markers straight down: each major turn in inventory shows up in price within months.

Months of inventory (supply)

Average price (what happens next)

January 2026 is the mirror image of March 2022. At the top, inventory bottomed while price peaked. This year, inventory peaked while price bottomed. The gold line always moves first, and it has fallen from 7.6 to about 5 since January while price has stopped declining.